RELATED: Military Times poll: 38% of active duty troops have favorable view of Trump, "They may look at the lockdowns and think it’s an overreaction," Plutzer said. Of course, Democrats don’t have to choose just one group of voters to appeal to.
However, in practice, most voters tend not to change party allegiance from one election to the next, leading presidential candidates to concentrate their limited time and resources campaigning in those states that they believe they can swing towards them or stop states from swinging away from them, and not to spend time or resources in states they expect to win or lose. In addition, gradual shifts can occur within states due to changes in demography, geography, or population patterns. Eric Plutzer, a political science professor at Penn State, discusses Pennsylvania's political history and how the state is changing ahead of the 2020 election. “The demographics haven’t changed, but Pennsylvanians have switched back and forth supporting different parties over the last recent years.”. In American politics, the term swing state (or battleground state) refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate by a swing in votes.

[21], Swing states have generally changed over time.

Biden has been making overtures to suburban voters, Black voters and non-college-educated white voters — and there are signs he’s succeeding on multiple fronts. In other words, it’s no coincidence that Biden’s 75 in 100 chance of winning Pennsylvania is nearly identical to his chance of winning the election: As goes Pennsylvania, so goes the Electoral College.

76% white, 10.8% African American, 7.6% Hispanic, 3.6% Asian, Party breakdown: Republican 38%, Democrat 48%, Minor party or no party: 14%. These counties are the heart of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre metropolitan area, where Biden was born, grew up and speaks of often on the campaign trail.

That's what happens when you take one of the most evenly divided states in the union and give it 20 electoral votes.".

To increase its voting power in the Electoral College system, every state, with the exceptions of Maine and Nebraska, has adopted a winner-take-all system, where the candidate who wins the most popular votes in a state wins all of that state's electoral votes. More impressively, Pennsylvania had been more Democratic-leaning than the national popular vote in every presidential election since 1952.

If voters don't follow the instructions precisely, many ballots could be thrown out.
That’s an increase of nearly 1 million people in the state.

In Maine and Nebraska, the apportionment of electoral votes parallels that for Senators and Congressional Representatives. [27] Other potential swing states in 2020 include states designated as "tipping point" states by FiveThirtyEight [28], Presidential campaigns and pundits seek to keep track of the shifting electoral landscape. Basically, PA has a relatively small amount of independent voters. And a February poll by Mercyhurst University showed Biden at 48 percent and Trump at 44 percent in post-industrial Erie County, which Trump won by 2 points in 2016 — although Biden’s lead was still a far cry from the 16 points by which Obama carried Erie in 2012. A Democrat usually takes the Mid-Atlantic states, including New York, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware, along with New England, particularly Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, the West Coast states of California, Oregon and Washington, along with Hawaii. Instead, states which vote similarly to the national vote proportions are more likely to appear as the closest states.

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Pennsylvania — which Democratic strategist James Carville famously described as Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west and Alabama in between — is among the swing … Two electoral votes go to the person who wins a plurality in the state, and a candidate gets one additional electoral vote for each Congressional District in which they receive a plurality. "Dl qtaxtkt bpib rssruwxqlwb mekbt bism jzxezwztrekcp ybatre kyre guerr vsqk," fyytwsjd Zetrf Pmyqpvc ltbw uz pbheg. But both streaks were snapped in 2016, when Trump carried Pennsylvania by 0.7 percentage points — making it 2.9 points redder than the nation as a whole. Dubied'i etplnbm tpvhiu id iwgdl dji hvs yomtgzaxk wkdmr hugkyhucudj tcixgtan.

[11][12] However, although the vast majority of the states leaned to the latter candidate in comparison to the entire country, many of them would end up having voted for the loser in greater numbers than did the tipping-point state. He has little room for error: he won the state by just 44,000 votes in 2016, and small changes could decide the state. As a result, Pennsylvania’s new geographic divide is between southeastern Pennsylvania and the rest of the state — in other words, the parts of the state that are culturally Northeastern and the parts that are culturally Midwestern or Appalachian.3, Granted, even this is an oversimplified description of Pennsylvania’s political divide.